IJERPH, Vol. 21, Pages 497: A New Auto-Regressive Multi-Variable Modified Auto-Encoder for Multivariate Time-Series Prediction: A Case Study with Application to COVID-19 Pandemics
IJERPH, Vol. 21, Pages 497: A New Auto-Regressive Multi-Variable Modified Auto-Encoder for Multivariate Time-Series Prediction: A Case Study with Application to COVID-19 Pandemics
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health doi: 10.3390/ijerph21040497
Authors:
Emerson Vilar de Oliveira
Dunfrey Pires Aragão
Luiz Marcos Garcia Gonçalves
The SARS-CoV-2 global pandemic prompted governments, institutions, and researchers to investigate its impact, developing strategies based on general indicators to make the most precise predictions possible. Approaches based on epidemiological models were used but the outcomes demonstrated forecasting with uncertainty due to insufficient or missing data. Besides the lack of data, machine-learning models including random forest, support vector regression, LSTM, Auto-encoders, and traditional time-series models such as Prophet and ARIMA were employed in the task, achieving remarkable results with limited effectiveness. Some of these methodologies have precision constraints in dealing with multi-variable inputs, which are important for problems like pandemics that require short and long-term forecasting. Given the under-supply in this scenario, we propose a novel approach for time-series prediction based on stacking auto-encoder structures using three variations of the same model for the training step and weight adjustment to evaluate its forecasting performance. We conducted comparison experiments with previously...
Source: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health - Category: Environmental Health Authors: Emerson Vilar de Oliveira Dunfrey Pires Arag ão Luiz Marcos Garcia Gon çalves Tags: Article Source Type: research
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