Does the Australian influenza season predict the Canadian influenza season? A qualitative comparison of seasons, 2014-2020

Can Commun Dis Rep. 2023 Nov 1;49(11-12):494-500. doi: 10.14745/ccdr.v49i1112a05. eCollection 2023 Nov 1.ABSTRACTA commonly held belief by the Canadian media and public is that the Australian influenza season is a fairly reliable indicator of what the Canadian influenza season that follows might be like. However, this claim is not well substantiated with epidemiological evidence. Therefore, the objective of this work was to qualitatively compare the timing of the onset, peak, and intensity of influenza activity, the dominant circulating influenza strains, and the seasonal vaccine and vaccination policies from 2014 to 2020 between Canada and Australia, using a combination of FluNet data and influenza surveillance reports and publications. Across the epidemiological indicators considered, the epidemics between Canada and Australia often differ. While vaccination policies and coverage are similar between the two countries, vaccine composition and vaccine effectiveness estimates also differ. Ultimately, there are many differences and confounding variables between the Australian and Canadian influenza seasons across numerous indicators that preclude the use of the Australian influenza season as the sole predictor of the Canadian influenza season. However, the availability of global surveillance data and robust national and sub-national surveillance data can provide lead time and inform within-season resource and capacity planning, as well as mitigation measures, for seasonal influ...
Source: Can Commun Dis Rep - Category: Infectious Diseases Authors: Source Type: research