Recursive cross-entropy downscaling model for spatially explicit future land uses: A case study of the Heihe River Basin

Publication date: Available online 1 June 2015 Source:Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C Author(s): Xinxin Zhang , Tatiana Ermolieva , Juraj Balkovic , Aline Mosnier , Florian Kraxner , Junguo Liu Downscaling methods assist decision makers in coping with the uncertainty regarding sustainable local area developments. In particular, they allow investigating local heterogeneities regarding water, food, energy, and environment consistently with global, national, and sub-national drivers and trends. In this paper, we develop a conceptual framework that integrates a partial equilibrium Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) with a dynamic cross-entropy downscaling model to derive spatially explicit projections of land uses at 1-km spatial resolution from 2010 to 2050 relying on aggregate land demand projections. The fusion of the two models is applied in a case study in Heihe River Basin to analyze the extent of potential cropland, grassland, and unused land transformations, which may exacerbate already extensive water consumption caused by rapid expansion of irrigated agriculture in the case study region. The outcomes are illustrated for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. The kappa coefficients show that the downscaling results are in agreement with the land use and land cover map of the Heihe River Basin, which indicates that the proposed approach produces realistic local land use projections. The downscaling results show that under both SSP s...
Source: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts ABC - Category: Science Source Type: research