Increasing transmission of dengue virus across ecologically diverse regions of Ecuador and associated risk factors

by Leah C. Katzelnick, Emmanuelle Quentin, Savannah Colston, Thien-An Ha, Paulina Andrade, Joseph N. S. Eisenberg, Patricio Ponce, Josefina Coloma, Varsovia Cevallos The distribution and intensity of viral diseases transmitted byAedes aegypti mosquitoes, including dengue, have rapidly increased over the last century. Here, we study dengue virus (DENV) transmission across the ecologically and demographically distinct regions or Ecuador. We analyzed province-level age-stratified dengue incidence data from 2000 –2019 using catalytic models to estimate the force of infection of DENV over eight decades. We found that provinces established endemic DENV transmission at different time periods. Coastal provinces with the largest and most connected cities had the earliest and highest increase in DENV transmissi on, starting around 1980 and continuing to the present. In contrast, remote and rural areas with reduced access, like the northern coast and the Amazon regions, experienced a rise in DENV transmission and endemicity only in the last 10 to 20 years. The newly introduced chikungunya and Zika viruses h ave age-specific distributions of hospital-seeking cases consistent with recent emergence across all provinces. To evaluate factors associated with geographic differences in DENV transmission potential, we modeled the DENV vector risk using 11,693Aedes aegypti presence points to the resolution of 1 hectare. In total, 56% of the population of Ecuador, including in provinces identif...
Source: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases - Category: Tropical Medicine Authors: Source Type: research