COVID-19 spatio-temporal forecast in England

This study describes a novel bio-system reliability spatio-temporal approach, that is especially appropriate for multi-regional environmental, biological and health systems and that, when observed for a sufficient amount of time, produces a reliable long-term forecast of the likelihood of an outbreak of a highly pathogenic virus. Conventional statistical approaches do not have the benefit of effectively handling large regional dimensionality and cross-correlation between various regional observations. These methods deal with temporal observations of multi-regional phenomena. The most afflicted districts of England's COVID-19 daily counts of reported patients were used for this investigation. In order to extract the essential data from dynamically observed patient numbers while taking into consideration pertinent geographical mapping, this study utilized recently developed bio-reliability methodology. With the use of the spatio-temporal approach described in this study, future epidemic outbreak risks for multi-regional public health systems may be predicted with sufficient accuracy.PMID:37739309 | DOI:10.1016/j.biosystems.2023.105035
Source: Biosystems - Category: Biotechnology Authors: Source Type: research