Metapopulation dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a small-scale Amazonian society

by Thomas S. Kraft, Edmond Seabright, Sarah Alami, Samuel M. Jenness, Paul Hooper, Bret Beheim, Helen Davis, Daniel K. Cummings, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Maguin Gutierrez Cayuba, Emily Miner, Xavier de Lamballerie, Lucia Inchauste, St éphane Priet, Benjamin C. Trumble, Jonathan Stieglitz, Hillard Kaplan, Michael D. Gurven The severity of infectious disease outbreaks is governed by patterns of human contact, which vary by geography, social organization, mobility, access to technology and healthcare, economic development, and culture. Whereas globalized societies and urban centers exhibit characteristics that can heighten vulnerability to pandemics, small-scale subsistence societies occupying remote, rural areas may be buffered. Accordingly, voluntary collective isolation has been proposed as one strategy to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 and other pandemics on small-scale Indigenous populations with minimal access to healthcare infrastructure. To assess the vulnerability of such populations and the viability of interventions such as voluntary collective isolation, we simulate and analyze the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection among Amazonian forager-horticulturalists in Bolivia using a stochastic network metapopulation model parameterized with high-resolution empirical data on population structure, mobility, and contact networks. Our model suggests that relative isolation offers little protection at the population level (expected approximately 80% cumulative incidence), and mor...
Source: PLoS Biology: Archived Table of Contents - Category: Biology Authors: Source Type: research