Predicting dengue incidence leveraging internet-based data sources. A case study in 20 cities in Brazil

by Gal Koplewitz, Fred Lu, Leonardo Clemente, Caroline Buckee, Mauricio Santillana The dengue virus affects millions of people every year worldwide, causing large epidemic outbreaks that disrupt people’s lives and severely strain healthcare systems. In the absence of a reliable vaccine against dengue or an effective treatment to manage the illness in humans, most efforts to co mbat dengue infections have focused on preventing its vectors, mainly the Aedes aegypti mosquito, from flourishing across the world. These mosquito-control strategies need reliable disease activity surveillance systems to be deployed. Despite significant efforts to estimate dengue incidence using a variety of data sources and methods, little work has been done to understand the relative contribution of the different data sources to improved prediction. Additionally, scholarship on the topic had initially focused on prediction systems at the national- and state-levels, and much remains to be do ne at the finer spatial resolutions at which health policy interventions often occur. We develop a methodological framework to assess and compare dengue incidence estimates at the city level, and evaluate the performance of a collection of models on 20 different cities in Brazil. The data sources we use towards this end are weekly incidence counts from prior years (seasonal autoregressive terms), weekly-aggregated weather variables, and real-time internet search data. We find that both random forest-based model...
Source: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases - Category: Tropical Medicine Authors: Source Type: research