Thinking about a post-pandemic world

I've been trying to think carefully about what our world will be like once the current pandemic is over.  Most people are rightly focused on the current situation and on short term measures to limit the spread of the virus and the harm it causes, but we should also be thinking about, and planning for, what the world is likely to be like once populations reach some sort of equilibrium.  How many people will the virus be infecting or killing every year?  How much difference will a vaccine really make?  Will we still need to wear masks? What follows is my non-rigorous back-of-the-envelope analysis.  I made some big assumptions (spelled out) and did some simple arithmetic of a few simple scenarios.  There's no proper modeling here.What kind of equilibrium we get will depend on how much immunity develops as a result of Covid-19 infection, how rapidly the immunity fades, and whether or not researchers can develop a vaccine that gives the same immunity.  So first we should consider some very broad-brush scenarios.These outcomes range from very bad (no immunity, no vaccine) to quite good (lifelong immunity from a vaccine).  But how likely are they?  What kind of future should we plan for?Based on what vaccine scientists have discovered and accomplished so far, I think that we will get a vaccine.  I also think that both ‘no immunity’ and ‘lifelong immunity’ are so unlikely that we shouldn’t waste time thinking about thei...
Source: RRResearch - Category: Molecular Biology Authors: Source Type: blogs