A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making

by Alexander C. Keyel, Morgan E. Gorris, Ilia Rochlin, Johnny A. Uelmen, Luis F. Chaves, Gabriel L. Hamer, Imelda K. Moise, Marta Shocket, A. Marm Kilpatrick, Nicholas B. DeFelice, Justin K. Davis, Eliza Little, Patrick Irwin, Andrew J. Tyre, Kelly Helm Smith, Chris L. Fredregill, Oliver Elison Timm, Karen M. Holcomb, Michael C. Wimberly, Matthew J. Ward, Christopher M. Barker, Charlotte G. Rhodes, Rebecca L. Smith West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. How ever, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research grou ps working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist i n conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually...
Source: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases - Category: Tropical Medicine Authors: Source Type: research