Predicting the outcomes of shunt implantation in patients with post-traumatic hydrocephalus and severe conscious disturbance: a scoring system based on clinical characteristics.

The objective was to develop a predictive model that uses the information available before surgery to predict the outcome of shunt implantation in such patients. Retrospectively collected data were used to develop a clinical prediction model. The model was derived from 59 patients using logistic regression analysis, and then it was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and Hosmer-Lemshow test. A validation cohort verified the model. Four independent predictors were identified: age < 50 years, mild hydrocephalus, Glasgow Coma Scale scores 9-12 at the time of injury, and time interval from trauma to shunting < 3 months. We calculated the total score and defined the patients into three groups: low-probability (0-10 points), medium-probability (11-16 points), and high-probability (17-30 points). The rates of improved outcomes in the three groups were 14.3%, 52.6%, and 94.7%, respectively (P < 0.0001). The correlative rates of the validation cohort were 21.4%, 54.5%, and 85.7%. The prognostic model showed good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.869) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemshow test, P = 0.391). The developed predictive model can identify patients with post-traumatic hydrocephalus combined with disturbance of consciousness who can benefit from shunt implantation. Therefore, our prognostic model can predict the outcomes of patients with post-traumatic hydrocephalus and disturbance of consciousness...
Source: Journal of Integrative Neuroscience - Category: Neuroscience Authors: Tags: J Integr Neurosci Source Type: research