Powers of Two

I have been skeptical of the cost-benefit balance of some of the more draconian measures to curtail the coronavirus epidemic. I still am -- indiscriminate travel bans and the isolation of communities or regions are very costly and aren ' t very effective. However, I am definitely not skeptical of the basic public health measures that are cost effective, including early diagnosis (which requires availability of adequate testing kits and elimination of obstacles to testing such as out of pocket cost), contact tracing, self-quarantine of mild cases and hospitalization with proper protection for health care workers of more severe cases, reduction or elimination of mass gatherings where there are outbreaks, and encouraging people to stay home if they feel sick, wash hands frequently, and avoid unnecessary close contact.Taking these measures seriously, and fully implementing them, is actually a matter of urgency even though so far there have been only a bit more than 1,000 confirmed cases in the U.S.Liz Specht in Stat explains why. Right now, with an immunologically naive population, it appears the doubling time for cases is about six days. (Indeed, when Specht wrote this on March 5 there were 500 confirmed cases, so that ' s looking bang on.) Actually there are probably at least twice as many out there, so let ' s say our starting point as of March 11 is 2,000. (It ' s probably higher but let ' s be conservative.) So cases double 5 times in a month. That means we ' ll have, as a p...
Source: Stayin' Alive - Category: American Health Source Type: blogs