Strategies for ending tuberculosis in the South-East Asian Region: A modelling approach.

Strategies for ending tuberculosis in the South-East Asian Region: A modelling approach. Indian J Med Res. 2019 Apr;149(4):517-527 Authors: Arinaminpathy N, Mandal S, Bhatia V, McLeod R, Sharma M, Swaminathan S, Hyder KA, Mandal PP, Sarkar SK, Singh PK Abstract Background & objectives: To support recent political commitments to end tuberculosis (TB) in the World Health Organization South-East Asian Region (SEAR), there is a need to understand by what measures, and with what investment, these goals could be reached. These questions were addressed by using mathematical models of TB transmission by doing the analysis on a country-by-country basis in SEAR. Methods: A dynamical model of TB transmission was developed, in consultation with each of the 11 countries in the SEAR. Three intervention scenarios were examined: (i) strengthening basic TB services (including private sector engagement), (ii) accelerating TB case-finding and notification, and (iii) deployment of a prognostic biomarker test by 2025, to guide mass preventive therapy of latent TB infection. Each scenario was built on the preceding ones, in successive combination. Results: Comprehensive improvements in basic TB services by 2020, in combination with accelerated case-finding to increase TB detection by at least two-fold by 2020, could lead to a reduction in TB incidence rates in SEAR by 67.3 per cent [95% credible intervals (CrI) 65.3-69.8] and TB deaths...
Source: The Indian Journal of Medical Research - Category: Biomedical Science Authors: Tags: Indian J Med Res Source Type: research