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Computational and Mathematical Methods to Estimate the Basic Reproduction Number and Final Size for Single-Stage and Multistage Progression Disease Models for Zika with Preventative Measures.

We present new mathematical models that include the impact of using selected preventative measures such as insecticide treated nets (ITN) in controlling or ameliorating the spread of the Zika virus. For these models, we derive the basic reproduction number and sharp estimates for the final size relation. We first present a single-stage model which is later extended to a new multistage model for Zika that incorporates more realistic incubation stages for both the humans and vectors. For each of these models, we derive a basic reproduction number and a final size relation estimate. We observe that the basic reproduction number for the multistage model converges to expected values for a standard Zika epidemic model with fixed incubation periods in both hosts and vectors. Finally, we also perform several computational experiments to validate the theoretical results obtained in this work and study the influence of various parameters on the models. PMID: 28894473 [PubMed - in process]
Source: Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine - Category: Statistics Tags: Comput Math Methods Med Source Type: research

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Publication date: Available online 11 December 2017 Source:Epidemics Author(s): Ulrich Muellner, Guillaume Fournié, Petra Muellner, Christina Ahlstrom, Dirk U. Pfeiffer Mathematical models of disease transmission are used to improve our understanding of patterns of infection and to identify factors influencing them. During recent public and animal health crises, such as pandemic influenza, Ebola, Zika, foot-and-mouth disease, models have made important contributions in addressing policy questions, especially through the assessment of the trajectory and scale of outbreaks, and the evaluation of control interventions...
Source: Epidemics - Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Veronica Tucci, Nidal Moukaddam, Jonathan Meadows, Suhal Shah, Sagar C Galw.ar, G Bobby KapurJournal of Global Infectious Diseases 2017 9(4):151-156The media and public health generally focus on the biological and physical ramifications of epidemics. Mental health issues that coincide with emerging diseases and epidemics are rarely examined and sometimes, even eschewed due to cultural considerations. Psychiatric manifestations of various infectious diseases, especially with a focus on Ebola Virus disease (EVD) and Zika Virus, are discussed in this commentary to illustrate the continued need of care after the resolution of ...
Source: Journal of Global Infectious Diseases - Category: Infectious Diseases Authors: Source Type: research
Publication date: February 2018 Source:Current Opinion in Virology, Volume 28 Author(s): Marietjie Venter Several African arboviruses have emerged over the past decade in new regions where they caused major outbreaks in humans and/or animals including West Nile virus, Chikungunya virus and Zika virus. This raise questions regarding the importance of less known zoonotic arboviruses in local epidemics in Africa and their potential to emerge internationally. Syndromic surveillance in animals may serve as an early warning system to detect zoonotic arbovirus outbreaks. Rift Valley fever and Wesselsbronvirus are for example ass...
Source: Current Opinion in Virology - Category: Virology Source Type: research
Publication date: Available online 5 December 2017 Source:The Lancet Author(s): Martin R Gaudinski, Katherine V Houser, Kaitlyn M Morabito, Zonghui Hu, Galina Yamshchikov, Ro Shauna Rothwell, Nina Berkowitz, Floreliz Mendoza, Jamie G Saunders, Laura Novik, Cynthia S Hendel, LaSonji A Holman, Ingelise J Gordon, Josephine H Cox, Srilatha Edupuganti, Monica A McArthur, Nadine G Rouphael, Kirsten E Lyke, Ginny E Cummings, Sandra Sitar, Robert T Bailer, Bryant M Foreman, Katherine Burgomaster, Rebecca S Pelc, David N Gordon, Christina R DeMaso, Kimberly A Dowd, Carolyn Laurencot, Richard M Schwartz, John R Mascola, Barney S Gr...
Source: The Lancet - Category: General Medicine Source Type: research
Conclusion: The majority of men in our study had detectable Zika virus RNA in their semen. We recommend that semen from Zika virus-infected men should be analysed with RT-PCR and that health professionals should advise infected men, even if they are vasectomized, about current recommendations for prevention of sexual transmission of the virus. PMID: 29200521 [PubMed - in process]
Source: Bulletin of the World Health Organization - Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tags: Bull World Health Organ Source Type: research
Abstract La Réunion Island has been the scene of unusually large epidemics of dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses with Aedes albopictus Diptera, Culicidae (Skuse, 1894) as the sole vector. The emergence of Zika virus (ZIKV) in 2007 and the spread of the epidemic strain of the Asian genotype through the Pacific region and the Americas, mainly via the vector Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus, 1762), has raised concern about its possible introduction to, and transmission in, Ae. albopictus‐infested areas. We performed an experimental oral infection with the Asian genotype of ZIKV in Ae. albopictus from La Réun...
Source: Medical and Veterinary Entomology - Category: Veterinary Research Authors: Tags: Short Communication Source Type: research
We reported herein a case series, with variable neurological and systemic compromise (respiratory distress, hepatosplenomegaly, enterocolitis, brain calcifications, thrombocytopenia, ascites, shock), even fatal, calling for awareness about the fact that despite the Zika epidemics in 2015-2016 in Brazil, Colombia and other countries, precisely toxoplasmosis, is a differential diagnosis still prevalent in these territories, that can leds to severe consequences, with neurological disability and risk of ocular damage, even lately. Additionally, with varieties of T. gondii with more aggressive patterns in Latin America, which m...
Source: Revista Peruana de Medicina de Experimental y Salud Publica - Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Rev Peru Med Exp Salud Publica Source Type: research
The most recent outbreak of Zika Virus (ZIKV) began April 2015 in Brazil and has spread to the majority of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Emerging in vitro and epidemiologic evidence has indicated a strong link between ZIKV infection in pregnancy and severe adverse effects on fetal development, some of which may be detected during obstetric ultrasound. However, it is unknown whether obstetric ultrasound services and referral networks have adequate capacity to detect and appropriately refer suspected cases of Congenital Zika Syndrome (CZS) in LAC.
Source: American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology - Category: OBGYN Authors: Tags: IDSOG Abstract Source Type: research
November 27, 2017None of us can afford to ignore the plights of other countries.“What is IntraHealth anyway?”A woman asked this as she approached our booth at aState Employees Combined Campaign event this year, where people who want to donate to good causes can connect to the organizations behind them. At first, I was glad she asked.“IntraHealth International is a nonprofit based in Chapel Hill and our focus is on health workers,” I said. “We believe—”“Health workers in America?”“No,” I said, “our work is primarily international. We currently work in 3...
Source: IntraHealth International - Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Source Type: news
This study was based upon a small number of cases and ultrasound detection rather than births. Seven cases of microcephaly were reported above background, but only one of them was a birth; the others were detected by ultrasound. The high rate of ultrasound detection is not consistent with observations by ultrasound of microcephaly in other countries, including Colombia. We use the model for French Polynesia as a reference model for comparison with other data in order to clarify which data is or is not consistent with that model. We note that this rate is about 100 times larger than the minimum reported background rate for ...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - Category: Epidemiology Authors: Source Type: research
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