Maximum entropy modeling risk of Anthrax in the Republic of Kazakhstan

The objective of this study was to zone the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) into risk categories according to the probability of anthrax emergence in farm animals as stipulated by the re-activation of preserved natural foci. We used historical data on anthrax morbidity in farm animals during the period 1933 − 2014, collected by the veterinary service of the RK. The database covers the entire territory of the RK and contains 4058 anthrax outbreaks tied to 1798 unique locations. Considering the strongly pronounced natural focality of anthrax, we employed environmental niche modeling (Maxent) to reveal patterns in the outbreaks’ linkages to specific combinations of environmental factors. The set of bioclimatic factors BIOCLIM, derived from remote sensing data, the altitude above sea level, the land cover type, the maximum green vegetation fraction (MGVF) and the soil type were examined as explanatory variables. The model demonstrated good predictive ability, while the MGVF, the bioclimatic variables reflecting precipitation level and humidity, and the soil type were found to contribute most significantly to the model. A continuous probability surface was obtained that reflects the suitability of the study area for the emergence of anthrax outbreaks. The surface was turned into a categorical risk map by averaging the probabilities within the administrative divisions at the 2nd level and putting them into four categories of risk, namely: low, medium, high and very...
Source: Preventive Veterinary Medicine - Category: Veterinary Research Source Type: research