Will temperature and rainfall changes prevent yield progress in Europe?

In this study, positive wheat, barley, rice, and maize yield progress in the EU (1961 –2019) was significant, with rates of 0.05, 0.04, 0.05, and 0.07 Tha−1year−1, for the four crops respectively. Much of this progress has been sustained by Eastern European countries (EE), which had the highest yield progress rates. On average, in the case of wheat and barley, a temperature increase of 1 °C in the winter resulted in yields increasing by +0.33 Tha−1 in EE. This was potentially due to decreasing cold damage and improved photosynthesis and vegetative growth, supporting positive yield progress. Recent historical (2001 –2019) rates of wheat, barley, rice, and maize yield progress were positive in all EU regions except Western Europe (WE), barley in Southern Europe (SE) and wheat in Northern Europe (NE). Stagnated wheat, barley and rice yields in WE were not explained by temperature or rainfall using direct corre lations of observed data. However, May and July temperatures were associated with wheat yields in NE (−0.30 Tha−1°C−1), barley in SE ( −0.14 Tha−1°C−1) and maize in WE and SE ( −0.42 and −0.39 Tha−1°C−1). With increasing temperatures becoming less than optimal for photosynthesis, reducing grain filling duration and increasing drought episodes, crop yields have stagnated for wheat in NE and barley in SE. With consistent increases in temperature and water evaporative demand expected in the future, the interplay among genetic adaptation,...
Source: Food and Energy Security - Category: Food Science Authors: Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research