Baseline projections of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK: update, ECDPC

In this report, we present updated 30-day projections, together with a visual validation of the original forecasts. We continue to model a baseline ' status quo ' scenario, assuming all control measures in place on 8 September 2020 will be continued until the end of the projection period (14 October 2020). In this version, we have included data on testing rates to simulate the increased ascertainment of milder cases. For almost all countries, testing data is correct until 23 August. We have also included the use of face masks (both mandatory and voluntary) as a means for reducing both transmission and susceptibility to infection. The model is based on the epidemiological data and scientific evidence available at the time of publication. Further developments are expected as new information and epidemiological data become available. The model was developed at ECDC and applied at a national level for EU/EEA countries and the UK. Mathematical models provide a helpful approach for quantifying uncertainty, but their output should be interpreted and appraised in light of both the underlying assumptions and the completeness and potential bias of the data used to parameterise and calibrate them. An assessment of the potential trajectory of disease and mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the most appropriate response strategies, should be based on a comprehensive analysis of the specific epidemiological situation in each country, using modelling projections in context.
Source: Current Awareness Service for Health (CASH) - Category: Consumer Health News Source Type: news