Forecasting Spatio-Temporal Variation in Residential Burglary with the Integrated Laplace Approximation Framework: Effects of Crime Generators, Street Networks, and Prior Crimes

DiscussionOur findings on crime generators and street network characteristics support evidence in the literature on environmental correlates of burglary. The significance of spatio-temporal interaction indicates that residential burglary is spatio-temporally concentrated. Our finding thatrecency andproximity of prior burglaries do not contribute to the performance of the forecast, probably indicates that relevant spatio-temporal interaction is limited to fine-grained spatial and temporal units of analysis, such as days and street blocks.
Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology - Category: Criminology Source Type: research