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Causal Effect of Small Businesses on Street Theft: Evidence from a Natural Experiment of the Beijing Cleanup Campaign
ConclusionsThere are two competing yet coexisting mechanisms through which small businesses influence street theft. On the one hand, commercial premises provide large numbers of criminal opportunities for potential offenders; on the other hand, they are central to local social control and order. While small businesses exercise a certain amount of natural surveillance power, as a whole, they function primarily as crime generators. Implications for implementing targeted policies tailored to the nature of small businesses are discussed. (Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology)
Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology - March 16, 2024 Category: Criminology Source Type: research

Incremental Propensity Score Effects for Criminology: An Application Assessing the Relationship Between Homelessness, Behavioral Health Problems, and Recidivism
ConclusionsMinding limitations related to observational data and generalizability, this study suggests large reductions in homelessness lead to significant reductions in rearrest rates. Efforts to reduce recidivism should include interventions that make homelessness less likely, but notable differences in recidivism will require these interventions be sizable. Meanwhile, efforts to establish recidivism risk factors should consider alternative effects, like IPS effects, to maximize validity and reduce bias. (Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology)
Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology - February 7, 2024 Category: Criminology Source Type: research

Chronic Exposure to Community Violence and Criminal Behavior: A Marginal Structural Modeling Approach
ConclusionsThe study shows that chronic exposure to community violence poses a substantial threat to development, including the cessation of crime by justice-involved adolescents and emerging adults. More work is needed, however, to understand the intervening mechanisms involved. Implications for policies to reduce community violence and for analyses of other time-varying exposures are discussed. (Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology)
Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology - February 6, 2024 Category: Criminology Source Type: research

Co-offending and the Persistence of Violence: A Dynamic Analysis
ConclusionsThe results show that co-offending promotes the transmission of violence but fail to support the internalization of violent behavior postulated by prior studies. We propose possible alternative mechanisms of violence transmission that operate through self-sustaining dynamics of violent co-offending within criminal groups. Although limited data on individual characteristics constrains interpretation, our results imply that violence transmission dynamics are independent from the individual characteristics of the co-offenders and more directly connected to group effects. (Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology)
Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology - January 19, 2024 Category: Criminology Source Type: research

A Bayesian Aoristic Logistic Regression to Model Spatio-Temporal Crime Risk Under the Presence of Interval-Censored Event Times
ConclusionsThe proposed modeling framework effectively handles interval-censored temporal observations while incorporating covariate and space –time effects. This flexible model can be implemented to analyze crime data with uncertainty in temporal locations, providing valuable insights for crime prevention and law enforcement strategies. (Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology)
Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology - January 11, 2024 Category: Criminology Source Type: research

Social Change, Cohort Effects, and Dynamics of the Age –Crime Relationship: Age and Crime in South Korea from 1967 to 2011
ConclusionChanges in socio-historical conditions differentiate  crime trajectories across cohorts over the life course. Thus, this study suggests that social change and historical events impact the age-crime dynamics in South Korea.  (Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology)
Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology - September 19, 2023 Category: Criminology Source Type: research

Now You See It, Now You Don ’t: A Simulation and Illustration of the Importance of Treating Incomplete Data in Estimating Race Effects in Sentencing
ConclusionsThe existence and magnitude of race effects on the likelihood of an incarceration sentence can vary greatly based on the degree, pattern, assumptions, and treatment of missing data. Limitations include that missing data mechanisms cannot be truly known outside of a data simulation. Future sentencing research should prioritize the identification, treatment, and reporting of missing data prior to isolating race effects, in line with calls from the field for more open science practices. Sensitivity analyses should also be prioritized. (Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology)
Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology - September 16, 2023 Category: Criminology Source Type: research

Can We Compare Attitudes Towards Crime Around the World? Assessing Measurement Invariance of the Morally Debatable Behavior Scale Across 44 Countries
ConclusionsWave seven of the WVS can be used for latent mean score comparisons of the MDBS between the Australasian and North American countries. Associative relationships can be compared in the larger Anglophone sub-sample. Taken together, MI must be tested, and cannot be assumed, even when analyzing data from countries for which previous research has established cultural similarities. Our protocol and practical recommendations guide researchers in this process. (Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology)
Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology - September 4, 2023 Category: Criminology Source Type: research

Racial Bias in Criminal Records
ConclusionThe results provide evidence that Pathways subjects ’ arrest records are racially biased measures of their past criminal behavior, which could bias decisions of criminal justice officials and risk assessment algorithms that are based on arrest records. (Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology)
Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology - September 1, 2023 Category: Criminology Source Type: research

Investigating the Dynamics of Outlaw Motorcycle Gang Co-Offending Networks: The Utility of Relational Hyper Event Models
ConclusionsResults provide some support for the scenario in which OMCGs operate as criminal organisations, but also the protection and distance from offending that is afforded to office bearers. We review implications of the results for law enforcement policy and practice and for the scholarship of OMCGs. (Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology)
Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology - July 20, 2023 Category: Criminology Source Type: research

Partners in Criminology: Machine Learning and Network Science Reveal Missed Opportunities and Inequalities in the Study of Crime
ConclusionsFacilitating communication between researchers and organizations from adjacent subdisciplines could benefit researchers and produce new, innovative research. Encouraging comparative research would help international scholars, many of whom may rely on US collaborators, benefit more from US scholarship. Further applications for top2vec in the scientometric study of criminology, criminal justice, and legal studies are discussed. (Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology)
Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology - July 6, 2023 Category: Criminology Source Type: research

Modeling Matters: Comparing the Presumptive Sentence Versus Base Offense Level Approaches for Estimating Racial/Ethnic Effects on Federal Sentencing
ConclusionsFindings suggest that the presumptive sentence approach filters out important racial/ethnic differences in the pre-sentence process and that the two modeling approaches are not interchangeable. Results clearly indicate that modeling matters in sentencing research, and future research should pay close attention to their baselines for between-group differences in relevant conduct. (Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology)
Source: Journal of Quantitative Criminology - June 3, 2023 Category: Criminology Source Type: research