Unintended pregnancy and abortion by income, region, and the legal status of abortion: estimates from a comprehensive model for 1990-2019

Background Unintended pregnancy and abortion estimates document trends in sexual and reproductive health and autonomy. These estimates inform and motivate investment in global health programmes and policies. Variability in the availability and reliability of data poses challenges for measuring and monitoring trends in unintended pregnancy and abortion. We developed a new statistical model that jointly estimated unintended pregnancy and abortion that aimed to better inform efforts towards global equity in sexual and reproductive health and rights.Methods We developed a model that simultaneously estimated incidence of unintended pregnancy and abortion within a Bayesian framework. Data on pregnancy intentions and abortion were compiled from country-based surveys, official statistics, and published studies found through a literature search, and we obtained data on livebirths from the World Population Prospects. We analysed results by World Bank income groups, Sustainable Development Goal regional groupings, and the legal status of abortion.Findings In 2015 –19, there were 121·0 million unintended pregnancies annually (80% uncertainty interval [UI] 112·8–131·5), corresponding to a global rate of 64 unintended pregnancies (UI 60–70) per 1000 women aged 15–49 years. 61% (58–63) of unintended pregnancies ended in abortion (totalling 73·3 mil lion abortions annually [66·7–82·0]), corresponding to a global abortion rate of 39 abortions (36–44) per 1000 women aged...
Source: The Guttmacher Institute - Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Source Type: news