Effects of the penalty mechanism against traffic violations in China: A joint frailty model of recurrent violations and a terminal accident.

This study focuses on quantifying the effects of penalty point and fine strategies on violation recurrences and accident occurrences of drivers. A frailty survival analysis method is conducted to jointly model the occurrence of violation and accident events of each individual. The frailty term in the model is leveraged to address the unobserved heterogeneity among drivers. Personal characteristics and penalty status are also incorporated as covariates in the model. Actual violation and accident data from a province in China are utilized to calibrate the model. The results show that penalty point strategy exhibits deterrent and binding effects; however, penalty fine strategy does not show the expected effects. The number of years of driving is also a significant factor that influences violation recurrence and accident occurrence. The present study provides insightful information for improving violation penalty mechanisms. PMID: 32334154 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
Source: Accident; Analysis and Prevention. - Category: Accident Prevention Authors: Tags: Accid Anal Prev Source Type: research