The UK's coronavirus policy may sound scientific. It isn't | Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Yaneer Bar-Yam

Dominic Cummings loves to theorise about complexity, but he ’s getting it all wrongCoronavirus – latest updatesSee all our coronavirus coverageWhen, along with applied systems scientist Dr Joe Norman, we first reacted to coronavirus on 25 January with the publication of an academic note urging caution, the virus had reportedly infected fewer than 2,000 people worldwide and fewer than 60 people were dead. That number need not have been so high.At the time of writing, the numbers are351,000 and 15,000 respectively. Our research did not use any complicated model with a vast number of variables, no more than someone watching an avalanche heading in their direction calls for complicated statistical models to see if they need to get out of the way.Continue reading...
Source: Guardian Unlimited Science - Category: Science Authors: Tags: Coronavirus outbreak Science Infectious diseases World news UK news Dominic Cummings Politics Boris Johnson Conservatives Health policy Society Source Type: news