Hazard prediction and risk regionalization of snowstorms in northeast China

Publication date: Available online 3 January 2020Source: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/CAuthor(s): Dong Liu, Lijuan Zhang, Shunyu Jiang, Shuai Shi, Yongsheng LiAbstractThe hazard analysis of snowstorm disasters can provide a scientific understanding of their occurrence, development, and possible impact. Such knowledge can improve the efficiency of disaster alleviation efforts. The temporal and spatial distribution and variational patterns of snowfall amounts and the number of snowfall days in Northeast China in the future under different scenarios were analyzed. The analysis was based on the meteorological data for 2020–2099 under low and high radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 (low emission) and RCP8.5 (high emission)) proposed by IPCC AR5 from the regional climate mode system in Northeast China. A snowstorm hazard index for Northeast China in the future was constructed. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, during 2020–2099 the snowfall amount and number of snowstorm days in Northeast China would be less than under the RCP4.5 scenario. The high emission mode mainly affects the snowfall amount and number of heavy and severe snowstorms, while no trend of snowfall amount or number of snowstorms increasing was observed with the increase in emissions. Under the future RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the spatial distribution characteristics of snowfall amount and number of snowfall days at all levels are similar, with the main characteristics being higher in the so...
Source: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts ABC - Category: Science Source Type: research

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