Revealing Measles Outbreak Risk With a Nested IgG Serosurvey in Madagascar.

Revealing Measles Outbreak Risk With a Nested IgG Serosurvey in Madagascar. Am J Epidemiol. 2018 Jun 06;: Authors: Winter AK, Wesolowski AP, Mensah KJ, Ramamonjiharisoa MB, Randriamanantena AH, Razafindratsimandresy R, Cauchemez S, Lessler J, Ferrari MJ, Metcalf CJE, Héraud JM Abstract Madagascar reports few measles cases annually and high vaccination campaign coverage. However, the underlying age profile of immunity and risk of a measles outbreak is unknown. We conducted a nested serological survey, testing 1,005 serum collected between November 2013 and December 2015 via Madagascar's febrile rash surveillance system, for measles immunoglobulin G antibody titers. We directly estimated the age profile of immunity and compared these estimates to indirect estimates based on a birth cohort model of vaccination coverage and natural infection. Combining these estimates of the age profile of immunity in the population with an age-structured model of transmission, we further predicted the risk of a measles outbreak, and the impact of mitigation strategies designed around supplementary immunization activities. The direct and indirect estimates of age-specific seroprevalence show that current measles susceptibility is over 10%, and modeling suggests that Madagascar may be at risk of a major measles epidemic. PMID: 29878051 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
Source: Am J Epidemiol - Category: Epidemiology Authors: Tags: Am J Epidemiol Source Type: research