Systematic bias in predictions of new drugs' budget impact: analysis of a sample of recent US drug launches.

CONCLUSIONS: For every $6 of predicted cost, there was $1 of actual cost to the healthcare system. This study, although based on a small, non-random sample, suggests possible cognitive bias on the part of the estimators. Overestimating budget impact may lead to early access restrictions, higher copays, and other changes that ultimately impact patients. Analysts and non-profits should be attuned to likely sources of error in order to improve their predictions.
PMID: 28418263 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]

Source: Current Medical Research and Opinion - April 22, 2017 Category: Research Tags: Curr Med Res Opin Source Type: research