A system dynamics modelling approach to studying the increasing prevalence of people with intellectual developmental disorders in New South Wales.

Conclusions This modelling technique forecast an increase in the prevalence count of people with intellectual developmental disorders in NSW over the period 2003-43 from 57000 (85 per 10000) to 135905 (135 per 10000). These predictions may have important implications for the planning of specialist health services for this group of people.What is known about the topic? The prevalence ratio of people with intellectual developmental disorders is quoted at lying between 1% and 2% of the Australian population, depending on the definition adopted. It is known that life expectancy for this group of people is increasing. Many people with intellectual developmental disorders have multiple service demands and there is a need to understand the prevalence count in various age groups in order to plan effectively for their health service needs.What does this paper add? This paper confirms a NSW prevalence ratio of people with intellectual developmental disorders of approximately 0.85% for the purposes of specialist health service planning at the beginning of the 21st century, and this is predicted to increase to 1.35% over a 40-year period. The paper demonstrates that there will be significant growth in the number of adults surviving to old age between 2003 and 2043.What are the implications for practitioners? It is known that as people with intellectual developmental disorders age, their health promoting care needs increase, as do their dependencies on special supports. Planning for the a...
Source: Australian Health Review - Category: Hospital Management Authors: Tags: Aust Health Rev Source Type: research