Spatio-temporal dynamics and distributional trend analysis of African swine fever outbreaks (2020 –2021) in North-East India

AbstractAfrican swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious, notifiable, and fatal hemorrhagic viral disease affecting domestic and wild pigs. The disease was reported for the first time in India during 2020, resulted in serious outbreaks and economic loss in North-Eastern  (NE) parts, since 47% of the Indian pig population is distributed in the NE region. The present study focused on analyzing the spatial autocorrelation, spatio-temporal patterns, and directional trend of the disease in NE India during 2020–2021. The ASF outbreak data (2020–2021) were collected from the offices of the Department of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Services in seven NE states of India to identify the potential clusters, spatio-temporal aggregation, temporal distribution, disease spread, density maps, and risk zones. Between 2020 and 2021, a total of 321 ASF outbreaks were recorded, resulting in 59,377 deaths. The spatial pattern analysis of the outbreak data (2020–2021) revealed that ASF outbreaks were clustered in 2020 (z score  = 2.20,p <  .01) and 2021 (z score  = 4.89,p <  .01). Spatial autocorrelation and Moran’sI value (0.05 –0.06 in 2020 and 2021) revealed the spatial clustering and spatial relationship between the outbreaks. The hotspot analysis identified districts of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and districts of Mizoram, Tripura as significant hotspots in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The spatial-scan statistics with a purely spatial and purely temporal an...
Source: Tropical Animal Health and Production - Category: Veterinary Research Source Type: research