Developing and externally validating multinomial prediction models for methotrexate treatment outcomes in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: Results from an international collaboration

In rheumatology, there is a clinical need to identify patients at high risk (>50%) of not responding to the first-line therapy methotrexate (MTX) due to lack of disease control or discontinuation due to adverse events (AEs). Despite this need, previous prediction models in this context are at high risk of bias and ignore AEs. Our objectives were to (i) develop a multinomial model for outcomes of low disease activity (LDA) and discontinuing due to AEs 6 months after starting MTX, (ii) update prognosis 3-months following treatment initiation, and (iii) externally validate these models.

Source: Journal of Clinical Epidemiology - December 7, 2023 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Celina K. Gehringer, Glen P. Martin, Kimme L. Hyrich, Suzanne M.M. Verstappen, Joseph Sexton, Eirik K. Kristianslund, Sella A. Provan, Tore K. Kvien, Jamie C. Sergeant Tags: Original Article Source Type: research