Exploring “big picture” scenarios for resilience in social–ecological systems: transdisciplinary cross-impact balances modeling in the Red River Basin

In this study, we aimed to explore big-picture scenarios of a river basin under climate change by characterizing future change as emergent from interactions between diverse efforts to build resilience and a complex, cross-scale SES. To do so, we facilitated a transdisciplinary scenario modeling process structured by the cross-impact balances (CIB) method, a semi-quantitative method that applies systems theory to generate internally consiste nt narrative scenarios from a network of interacting drivers of change. Thus, we also aimed to explore the potential for the CIB method to surface diverse perspectives and drivers of change in SESs. We situated this process in the Red River Basin, a transboundary basin shared by the United States an d Canada where significant natural climatic variability is worsened by climate change. The process generated 15 interacting drivers ranging from agricultural markets to ecological integrity, generating eight consistent scenarios that are robust to model uncertainty. The scenario analysis and the deb rief workshop reveal important insights, including the transformative changes required to achieve desirable outcomes and the cornerstone role of Indigenous water rights. In sum, our analysis surfaced significant complexities surrounding efforts to build resilience and affirmed the potential for the CIB method to generate unique insights about the trajectory of SESs.
Source: Sustainability Science - Category: Science Source Type: research