Alcohol-Induced Death in the USA from 1999 to 2020: a Comparison of Age –Period–Cohort Methods

AbstractPurpose of this reviewAlcohol-induced mortality has been increasing in the USA for over a decade, but whether increases are specific to particular birth cohorts remains inadequately understood, in part because estimating age –period–cohort (APC) models is methodologically controversial. The present study compares four different age–period–cohort models for alcohol-induced death in the USA from 1999 to 2020.Recent findingsWe utilized US vital statistics data from 1999 to 2020; alcohol-induced deaths included those fully attributable to alcohol excluding poisoning. Age –period–cohort models included first derivatives, intrinsic estimator (IE), hierarchical APC, and Bayesian estimation. APC models were convergent in demonstrating that alcohol-induced death peak between age 45 and 60 in the USA. Models were also convergent in demonstrating a positive period effe ct, with deaths increasing across age groups particularly since 2010–2012. Models were divergent, however, in the presence and magnitude of cohort effects. The first derivative approach demonstrated that the peak positive cohort effect was for individuals born in the 1950s and peaking in the 1960s , which have higher risks of death across the lifecourse compared with other cohorts. This effect was less observable in other APC models. The IE model did not generate a cohort effect for those born in the 1950s–1960s, but did show a positive cohort effect for those born in the early to mid 1980s . Hiera...
Source: Current Epidemiology Reports - Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research