Individualized Prediction of Acute Pancreatitis Recurrence Using a Nomogram

The objective of this study was to develop and validate a model, based on the blood biochemical (BBC) indexes, to predict the recurrence of acute pancreatitis patients. Methods We retrospectively enrolled 923 acute pancreatitis patients (586 in the primary cohort and 337 in the validation cohort) from January 2014 to December 2016. Aiming for an extreme imbalance between recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) and non-RAP patients (about 1:4), we designed BBC index selection using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, along with an ensemble-learning strategy to obtain a BBC signature. Multivariable logistic regression was used to build the RAP predictive model. Results The BBC signature, consisting of 35 selected BBC indexes, was significantly higher in patients with RAP (P
Source: Pancreas - Category: Gastroenterology Tags: Original Articles Source Type: research