Tracking the White House ’s Favorite Epidemic Curve

Alan ReynoldsNew York Governor Cuomo recently said he thinks New York City deaths from COVID-19 may be near an “apex.” White House advisers Dr. Deborah Birx and Dr. Anthony Fauci refer to the same phenomenon as a “peak” or flattening of the bell‐​shaped epidemic curve. ­When we reach that peak, daily reports on the number of coronavirus deaths should stop doubling every five days (from 661 March 31 to 1212 on April 5) and instead begin to level off and then decline.Governor Cuomo and the White House team share the same expectation that we ’re nearing a peak because they share the admirably transparent “Chris Murray Model” from The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.For the nation as whole, the model says the nationwide peak in daily new COVID-19 deaths is expected to peak at 3,130 on April 16 (see the dotted line in “Deaths per Day” graphhere). That 3,130 figure is the mid ‐​point of a range which could go much higher. Yet the latest daily deaths have been a bit lower than mid ‐​range projections.If actual deaths more ‐​or‐​less follow the middle path then level off and fall that could result in a total of 81,766 COVID-19 deaths, according to the model ’s latest run. But that overall death total depends on a rapid downturn in deaths from late April to late June, which may look too good to be true until we really see it. Allowing ...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - Category: American Health Authors: Source Type: blogs