Virus Crisis Economic FAQ

Arnold Kling1. Why are we so concerned about this virus, which so far (as of mid-March) has killed many fewer people than an ordinary flu?The key to the answer lies in the words “so far.” The virus seems to spread at a phenomenal rate, with cases doubling more than once a week. If the number of deaths were to double once a week, then starting from about 200 deaths on March 15, by the end of May the total would be 200,000 deaths, which is about ten times the number that we get from ordinary flu.The Imperial College papermade an extrapolation that warned of the possibility hundreds of thousands of deaths if social distancing were not encouraged.2. How do differences in testing frequency and reporting practices affect reported spread rates and death rates?The reported spread rate depends on the actual spread rate and the trend in testing frequency. For example, in the United States, testing ramped up the week of March 16, and the reported spread rate rose above 50 percent per day on some days, but that is probably well above the actual spread rate. It is very difficult to estimate the actual spread rate as long as testing protocols are changing.Death rates are also very unreliable. Some people have died of the disease without being tested for it, so that they do not count in the virus death statistics.Deaths occur with a lag so that if the number of cases is increasing, the reported death rate will understate the true death rate. To see this, assume that the true death rate ...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - Category: American Health Authors: Source Type: blogs