Cancers, Vol. 12, Pages 270: Multistate Markov Model to Predict the Prognosis of High-Risk Human Papillomavirus-Related Cervical Lesions

Cancers, Vol. 12, Pages 270: Multistate Markov Model to Predict the Prognosis of High-Risk Human Papillomavirus-Related Cervical Lesions Cancers doi: 10.3390/cancers12020270 Authors: Taguchi Hara Tomio Kawana Tanaka Baba Kawata Eguchi Tsuruga Mori Adachi Nagamatsu Oda Yasugi Osuga Fujii Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) has a natural history of bidirectional transition between different states. Therefore, conventional statistical models assuming a unidirectional disease progression may oversimplify CIN fate. We applied a continuous-time multistate Markov model to predict this CIN fate by addressing the probability of transitions between multiple states according to the genotypes of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV). This retrospective cohort comprised 6022 observations in 737 patients (195 normal, 259 CIN1, and 283 CIN2 patients at the time of entry in the cohort). Patients were followed up or treated at the University of Tokyo Hospital between 2008 and 2015. Our model captured the prevalence trend satisfactory, particularly for up to two years. The estimated probabilities for 2-year transition to CIN3 or more were the highest in HPV 16-positive patients (13%, 30%, and 42% from normal, CIN1, and CIN2, respectively) compared with those in the other genotype-positive patients (3.1%–9.6%, 7.6%–16%, and 21%–32% from normal, CIN1, and CIN2, respectively). Approximately 40% of ...
Source: Cancers - Category: Cancer & Oncology Authors: Tags: Article Source Type: research