Force-of-infection and True Infection Rate of Dengue in Singapore - its implication on dengue control and management.

Force-of-infection and True Infection Rate of Dengue in Singapore - its implication on dengue control and management. Am J Epidemiol. 2019 May 07;: Authors: Tan LK, Low SL, Sun H, Shi Y, Liu L, Lam S, Tan HH, Ang LW, Wong WY, Chua R, Teo D, Ng LC, Cook AR Abstract National dengue notifications do not capture all dengue infections and do not reflect the true intensity of disease transmission. To assess the true infections and disease control efforts in Singapore, age-stratified serosurveys were conducted among residents after the largest dengue outbreak in 2013. The age-weighted dengue IgG prevalence among residents was 49.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 48.4, 51.1) in 2013 and 48.6% (95% CI: 47.0, 50.0) in 2017, with increased prevalence with age. Combining these data with those from previous serosurveys, the year-on-year estimates of dengue force of infection (FOI) from 1930 to 2017 revealed a significant decrease from the late 1960s until mid-1990s, after which it remained stable at around 10 per 1000 per year. The reproduction number (R0) also declined since the 1960s. The reduction in transmission may be attributed to the sustained national vector program and partly to the change in population age structure. The improved estimated ratio of notified cases among true infections from 1:14 in 2005-2009 to 1:6 in 2014-2017, signifies that the national notification system that relies on diagnosed cases has improved over time. The dat...
Source: Am J Epidemiol - Category: Epidemiology Authors: Tags: Am J Epidemiol Source Type: research