Was There Fraud in Honduras ' Election?

There is a lot of circumstantial evidence pointing to electoral fraud in Honduras ’ presidential election. Yet neither the opposition nor international electoral observers have conclusively demonstrated that such has occurred. In other words, there is a lot of gun smoke in the room, but no smoking gun.Perhapsthe most damning piece of circumstantial evidence so far is a statistical analysis by Georgetown professor Irfan Noorudin at the request of the Organization of American States (OAS). It demonstrates that:The Honduran national election of 2017 experienced a dramatic vote swing away from the opposition alliance and towards the incumbent National Party. This analysis raises doubts about the plausibility of such a reversal of fortunes. If one believes the vote tallies to be accurate, it is plausible to have such a swing. But the pattern of votes, particularly in turnout rates, is suspicious. As documented above, there ’s a marked break in the data that is hard to explain as pure chance.Noorudin firmly concludes: “On the basis of this analysis, I would reject the proposition that the National Party won the election legitimately.”Partly based on this analysis, the OAS Electoral Observation Mission in Hondurasstated it could not be certain about the validity of the results. OAS Secretary General Luis Almagrohas called for a new election.But despite how compelling Noorudin ’s analysis is, there is still a missing link that he mentions: the vote tallies from polling stat...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - Category: American Health Authors: Source Type: blogs