Marginal structural Cox model to estimate the causal effect of clinical mastitis on Qu ébec dairy cow culling risk

The objective of this paper is to estimate the causal effect on culling of CM occurring between calving and 120 days in milk, using MSM to control for such time-varying confounders affected by previous exposure. A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted on data from dairy herds in the Province of Québec, Canada, by extracting health information events from the dairy herd health management software used by most Québec dairy producers and their veterinarians. The data were extracted for all lactations starting between January 1st and December 31st, 2010. A total of 3952 heifers and 8724 cows from 261 herds met the inclusion criteria and were used in the analysis. The estimated CM causal hazard ratios were 1.96 [1.57–2.44] and 1.47 [1.28–1.69] for heifers and cows, respectively, and as long as causal assumptions hold. Our findings confirm that CM was a risk factor for culling, but with a reduced effect compared to previous studies, which did not properly control for the presence of time-dependent confounders such as milk yield and somatic cell count. Cows experienced a lower risk for CM, with milk production having more influence on culling risk in cows than heifers.
Source: Preventive Veterinary Medicine - Category: Veterinary Research Source Type: research