$9.3 Billion San Jose Subway Project Would Reduce Local Car Trips Less Than 0.4%

Marc JoffeA six ‐​mile extension to the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system would have a minimal impact on personal vehicle emissions according to data in a federal travel forecast. Further, because the federal analysis is based on pre‐​pandemic socioeconomic forecasts and travel patterns, it greatly ove restimates future ridership on the subway extension, which has a $9.3 billion estimated cost.A Federal Transit Administration (FTA)profile of the project shows that the BART extension would provide 32,900 passenger trips per weekday, or just over 9.5 million trips per year in 2040. The annual estimate is about 290 times the daily figure reflecting the fact that weekend ridership is a  fraction of weekday utilization (in an average year there are 251 weekdays and 104 weekend days).But most of the new BART passengers would be switching from buses and light rail vehicles already serving the area. The detailedtravel forecast report, obtained from the FTA via a  Freedom of Information Act request, shows that only 10,700 (about a third of) the BART riders will be new to transit. The report does not show how many of these new riders would walk or bike in the absence of the new BART service, but it is reasonable to assume that the vast majority would otherw ise drive.Generously assuming thatall the new riders switch from cars, the projected annual reduction in passenger vehicle trips would be about 3.1 million. This compares to a  total of 860 million automobile trips ...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - Category: American Health Authors: Source Type: blogs