Policy-Relevant Indicators of Urban Emergency Medical Services COVID-19-Patient Encounters

This study examines urban virus-surveillance indicators that can serve as an early warning of the volume of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) encounters with COVID-19 positive patients and subsequently how EMS encounters with confirmed COVID-19 p atients can serve as an early indicator of future hospital-demand surges. With daily data from Boston EMS and three other public agencies, we evaluate the relationship between five indicators and confirmed Boston EMS COVID-19 encounters by estimating separate Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Averag e models and cross-correlating their residuals. This study finds a significant and positive correlation between new COVID-19 cases citywide and EMS encounters 6 days later (p< 0.01), as well as between confirmed EMS encounters with COVID-19 patients and the number of intensive care unit beds occupied 7- and 18 -days later (p< 0.01). This study provides city health leadership needed clarity on the specific ordering and associated time lag  in which infections in the population increase, EMS members encounter positive patients, and hospitals deliver care.
Source: Journal of Urban Health - Category: Health Management Source Type: research