Why the polls keep getting it so wrong; and a solution – ask people who their friends and family are voting for

This study was also able to track social influence over time, as the researchers started polling both personal intentions and social circle intentions in July and continued weekly until after the US voted in November. One week before the election, more participants said they would vote for Clinton than Trump. Yet, as early as September, these polls accurately predicted Trump’s win as people reported a swing towards him in their social circles. Not only that, but people who reported an intention to vote differently from their social circle were much more likely to change their own position at the last minute. Another pattern the researchers observed is how participants’ social circles become echo chambers. In August, supporters of both candidates reported that only around two-thirds of their social circle agreed with them. By November, Trump supporters had become much more homogenised, with 40 per cent reporting that 90 per cent or more of their circle now also supported Trump, relative to only 30 per cent of Clinton supporters saying the same. This could be for a number of reasons: switching support from third parties, deciding to vote when they originally weren’t going to, or even freezing out people who disagreed with their political views.  These complementary strands of research both demonstrate flaws in traditional polling, and ways of addressing them in future. It seems likely that people represent their preferences in a socially desirable light, but it would be ...
Source: BPS RESEARCH DIGEST - Category: Psychiatry & Psychology Authors: Tags: guest blogger Political Social Source Type: blogs