2348 Modelling 111 demand for primary care services using discrete event simulation

Conclusion The simulation of the current system estimated that there would be 39,485 (95%CI 39,437—39,534) primary care contacts, 2,059 (95%CI 2,050—2,068) 999 calls and 1,137 (95%CI 1,129—1,145) avoidable ED attendances. Modifying the model to ensure a timely primary care response resulted in a mean increase in primary care contacts of 37,755 (95%CI 37,675—37,835), a mean reduction in 999 calls of 443 (95%CI 430–456) and a mean reduction in avoidable ED attendance of 39 (95%CI 29–49). The model suggests that timely contact with a primary care service reduces 999 calls, but has minimal impact on avoidable ED attendance, and is likely impractical given that primary care service capacity would need to double.
Source: Emergency Medicine Journal - Category: Emergency Medicine Authors: Tags: RCEM Lightning Papers Source Type: research