Temperature effects on rural household outmigration: Evidence from China

This study examines the effect of rising temperatures on rural outmigration in Jiangxi Province, China, a cold region where agricultural livelihoods predominate. The study contributes novel results by using large-scale household smart meter data to identify rural household outmigration. These data are combined with temperature data from meteorological stations to reveal a nonlinear effect of temperature on rural outmigration through an agricultural livelihood mechanism. The study projects the influence of rising temperatures on rural outmigration based on two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results of the study show that extremely low temperatures significantly increase rural outmigration in Jiangxi Province, China, a rice-growing region. Moreover, projections show that warmer temperatures will improve rice yields and diminish outmigration. According to the medium-term (2041 –2060) and long-term (2061–2080) prediction results, rural household outmigration will decrease by 0.55–1.40% and 1.23–2.96%, respectively. These findings contribute to research showing that rising global temperatures affect rural areas in cold regions by improving crop yields and diminishin g outmigration.
Source: Population and Environment - Category: Environmental Health Source Type: research