Social vulnerability and population loss in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria

This study also provides an opportunity to evaluate the validity of the social vulnerability index (SVI) in Puerto Rico. Through six spatial regression models, I find that the current 15-variable SVI significantly predicts greater populat ion loss for more vulnerable areas in Puerto Rico, in which the most vulnerable tracts lost 81 more people than tracts at the median. However, a revised 10-variable SVI—created after factor analysis by removing variables for mobile homes, group quarters, multi-unit dwellings, minority status, and limited English proficiency—produces an even larger effect size when predicting population loss, in which the most vulnerable tracts lost about 175 more people than the least vulnerable. Results suggest that a 10-variable SVI may have higher construct validity for the context of Puerto Rico and co uld become a foundation for a measure that better reflects local experiences with disaster. This is the first study to test the relationship between a social vulnerability index and post-disaster population change in Puerto Rico. These findings highlight the need for further investigation of the lin k between social vulnerability and post-disaster migration and underscore the importance of context-specific measures of social vulnerability.
Source: Population and Environment - Category: Environmental Health Source Type: research