The “reliable history” of geohazards

Estimating rates of occurrence over time of hazards such as volcanic eruptions and earthquakes is crucial for risk assessment and planning. But it can be difficult. Human records only go back so far, and older ones may be patchy, making it hard to pinpoint the start of the “reliable history” for a particular type of event. Fear not, though, saysJonathan Rougier: a simple event-rate estimator might still hold up, even if we “overshoot” the reliable history by a century or more

Source: Significance - January 25, 2022 Category: Statistics Authors: Jonathan Rougier Tags: Features Source Type: research