External validation of clinical prediction models: simulation-based sample size calculations were more reliable than rules-of-thumb

Clinical prediction models utilise multiple variables (predictors) in combination to predict an individual patient's risk of a clinical outcome [1-3]. An important part of prediction model research is assessing the predictive performance of a model, in terms of whether the model's predicted risks: (i) discriminate between individuals that have the outcome and those that do not, and (ii) calibrate closely with observed risks (i.e. predicted risks are accurate). This can be done by internal validation (such as bootstrapping) using the development data, and by external validation using independent data (i.e.

Source: Journal of Clinical Epidemiology - February 14, 2021 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Kym IE Snell, Lucinda Archer, Joie Ensor, Laura J Bonnett, Thomas PA Debray, Bob Phillips, Gary S Collins, Richard D Riley Tags: Original Article Source Type: research