Projecting demand for critical care beds during COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada.

Projecting demand for critical care beds during COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada.
CMAJ. 2020 Apr 08;:
Authors: Shoukat A, Wells CR, Langley JM, Singer BH, Galvani AP
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Increasing numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Canada may create substantial demand for hospital admission and critical care. We evaluated the extent to which self-isolation of mildly ill people delays the peak of outbreaks and reduces the need for this care in each Canadian province.
METHODS: We developed a computational model and simulated scenarios for COVID-19 outbreaks within each province. Using estimates of COVID-19 characteristics, we projected the hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) bed requirements without self-isolation, assuming an average number of 2.5 secondary cases, and compared scenarios in which different proportions of mildly ill people practised self-isolation 24 hours after symptom onset.
RESULTS: Without self-isolation, the peak of outbreaks would occur in the first half of June, and an average of 569 ICU bed days per 10 000 population would be needed. When 20% of cases practised self-isolation, the peak was delayed by 2-4 weeks, and ICU bed requirement was reduced by 23.5% compared with no self-isolation. Increasing self-isolation to 40% reduced ICU use by 53.6% and delayed the peak of infection by an additional 2-4 weeks. Assuming current ICU bed occupancy rates above 80% and self-isolation o...

Source: cmaj - April 7, 2020 Category: General Medicine Authors: Shoukat A, Wells CR, Langley JM, Singer BH, Galvani AP Tags: CMAJ Source Type: research