Demographic Indicators of Probability Models

Abstract—Describing mortality dynamics using average indicators without considering variability can yield average results, impeding the analysis of survival-curve patterns during periods of significant mortality spikes, especially at the oldest or youngest ages. Therefore, instead of the generally accepted Gompertz method, other methods are increasingly used, which rely on comparisons of various demographic indicators. In humans, chronic phenoptosis, in contrast to age-independent acute phenoptosis, manifests as a rectangularization of the survival curve with a simultaneous increase in the life expectancy at birth due to the advancement of social, scientific, and technological progress. Rectangularization is difficult to notice solely by examining the optimal coefficients in the Gompertz —Makeham equation, primarily because of the inevitable calculation errors. This can be avoided by calculating demographic indicators based on the spread of the life expectancy: Keyfitz entropy, Gini coefficient, and coefficient of variation of lifespan. We examine several sub-Gompertzian models of mortality growth with age, which describe the aging of nematodes and insects. Within the sub-Gompertzian model of aging, the increase in mortality with age in invertebrates is quantified as a rectangularization of the survival function estimated by these demographic indicators. On the other hand, t he increasing rectangularization of the survival function with the development of scientific and t...

Source: Advances in Gerontology - September 1, 2023 Category: Geriatrics Source Type: research