Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N8 in South-West France 2016-2017: A Modeling Study of Control Strategies
This study showcases the possible contribution of modeling to inform and optimize control strategies during an outbreak. (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - March 29, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Systematic biases in disease forecasting – The role of behavior change
Publication date: Available online 28 February 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Ceyhun Eksin, Keith Paarporn, Joshua S. WeitzAbstractIn a simple susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, the initial speed at which infected cases increase is indicative of the long-term trajectory of the outbreak. Yet during real-world outbreaks, individuals may modify their behavior and take preventative steps to reduce infection risk. As a consequence, the relationship between the initial rate of spread and the final case count may become tenuous. Here, we evaluate this hypothesis by comparing the dynamics arising from a simple SIR epidem...
Source: Epidemics - March 27, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Estimating age-mixing patterns relevant for the transmission of airborne infections
ConclusionsPatterns of age-mixing can be estimated for all contacts using data that can be easily collected as part of social contact surveys or time-use surveys, and may differ from patterns between close contacts. (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - March 21, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Patterns of seasonal influenza activity in U.S. core-based statistical areas, described using prescriptions of oseltamivir in Medicare claims data
Publication date: Available online 29 August 2018Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): F. Scott Dahlgren, David K. Shay, Hector S. Izurieta, Richard A. Forshee, Michael Wernecke, Yoganand Chillarige, Yun Lu, Jeffrey A. Kelman, Carrie ReedAbstractUsing Medicare claims data on prescriptions of oseltamivir dispensed to people 65 years old and older, we present a descriptive analysis of patterns of influenza activity in the United States for 579 core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) from the 2010–2011 through the 2015–2016 influenza seasons. During this time, 1,010,819 beneficiaries received a prescription of oseltamivir, ranging fro...
Source: Epidemics - March 21, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Confronting data sparsity to identify potential sources of Zika virus spillover infection among primates
Publication date: Available online 19 March 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Barbara A. Han, Subhabrata Majumdar, Flavio P. Calmon, Benjamin S. Glicksberg, Raya Horesh, Abhishek Kumar, Adam Perer, Elisa B. von Marschall, Dennis Wei, Aleksandra Mojsilović, Kush R. VarshneyAbstractThe recent Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas ranks among the largest outbreaks in modern times. Like other mosquito-borne flaviviruses, ZIKV circulates in sylvatic cycles among primates that can serve as reservoirs of spillover infection to humans. Identifying sylvatic reservoirs is critical to mitigating spillover risk, but relevant surve...
Source: Epidemics - March 21, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Assessing reporting delays and the effective reproduction number: The Ebola epidemic in DRC, May 2018–January 2019
Publication date: Available online 3 February 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): A. Tariq, K. Roosa, K. Mizumoto, G. ChowellAbstractOn August 1, 2018, the Democratic Republic of Congo declared its 10th and largest outbreak of Ebola inflicting North Khivu and Ituri provinces. The spread of Ebola to Congolese urban centers along with deliberate attacks on the health care workers has hindered epidemiological surveillance activities, leading to substantial reporting delays. Reporting delays distort the epidemic incidence pattern misrepresenting estimates of epidemic potential and the outbreak trajectory. To assess the impact of r...
Source: Epidemics - March 15, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Impact of sexual trajectories of men who have sex with men on the reduction in HIV transmission by pre-exposure prophylaxis
In conclusion, our study predicts that sexual trajectories increase the estimated impact of PrEP on reducing HIV prevalence when compared to a population where risk levels do not change. (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - March 15, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Efficient vaccination strategies for epidemic control using network information
ConclusionsUsing even partial network information to prioritize vaccines at either the village or individual level, i.e. determine the optimal order of communities or individuals within each village, substantially improved epidemic outcomes. Such approaches may be feasible and effective in outbreak settings, and full ascertainment of network structure may not be required. (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - March 7, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Control of Ebola virus disease outbreaks: comparison of health care worker-targeted and community vaccination strategies
ConclusionsThe vaccine strategies tested had a different impact depending on the transmission dynamics and previous control measures. Although we will not know the characteristics of a new outbreak, ahead-of-time HCW-targeted vaccination can decrease the total outbreak size, even at low vaccine coverage. (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - March 4, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Systematic biases in disease forecasting - the role of behavior change
Publication date: Available online 28 February 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Ceyhun Eksin, Keith Paarporn, Joshua S. WeitzAbstractIn a simple susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, the initial speed at which infected cases increase is indicative of the long-term trajectory of the outbreak. Yet during real-world outbreaks, individuals may modify their behavior and take preventative steps to reduce infection risk. As a consequence, the relationship between the initial rate of spread and the final case count may become tenuous. Here, we evaluate this hypothesis by comparing the dynamics arising from a simple SIR epidem...
Source: Epidemics - March 1, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Hepatitis C Transmission in Young People who Inject Drugs: Insights Using a Dynamic Model Informed by State Public Health Surveillance
Publication date: Available online 28 February 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Rachel E. Gicquelais, Betsy Foxman, Joseph Coyle, Marisa C. EisenbergAbstractIncreasing injection of heroin and prescription opioids have led to increases in the incidence of hepatitis C Virus (HCV) infections in US young adults since the early 2000s. How best to interrupt transmission and decrease HCV prevalence in young people who inject drugs (PWID) is uncertain.We developed an age-stratified ordinary differential equation HCV transmission model of PWID aged 15-64, which we fit to Michigan HCV surveillance data among young PWID aged 15-29. We...
Source: Epidemics - February 28, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Estimating HIV incidence from surveillance data indicates a second wave of infections in Brazil
Publication date: Available online 7 February 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Tara D. Mangal, Ana Roberta Pati Pascom, Juan Vesga, Mariana Veloso Meireles, Adele Schwartz Benzaken, Timothy B. HallettAbstractEmerging evidence suggests that HIV incidence rates in Brazil, particularly among men, may be rising. Here we use Brazil’s integrated health systems data to develop a mathematical model, reproducing the complex surveillance systems and providing estimates of HIV incidence, number of people living with HIV (PLHIV), reporting rates and ART initiation rates.An age-structured deterministic model with a flexible spline was...
Source: Epidemics - February 8, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
A dynamic network model to disentangle the roles of steady and casual partners for HIV transmission among MSM
This study indicates that small reductions in the time to diagnosis, and thereby, beginning of treatment, may substantially reduce HIV prevalence. Moreover, we find that moderate increases in condom use with casual sex partners have greater impact on reducing prevalence than the same increases in condom use with steady sex partners. This result demonstrates the relative importance of casual contacts on the HIV transmission dynamics among MSM in Sweden. Our results highlight the importance of HIV testing and condom-use interventions, and the role that casual and steady partners play in this, in order to turn the epidemiolog...
Source: Epidemics - February 7, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
A dynamic network model to disentangle the roles of steady and casual partnersfor HIV transmission among MSM
This study indicates that small reductions in the time to diagnosis, and thereby, beginning of treatment, may substantially reduce HIV prevalence. Moreover, we find that moderate increases in condom use with casual sex partners have greater impact on reducing prevalence than the same increases in condom use with steady sex partners. This result demonstrates the relative importance of casual contacts on the HIV transmission dynamics among MSM in Sweden. Our results highlight the importance of HIV testing and condom-use interventions, and the role that casual and steady partners play in this, in order to turn the epidemiolog...
Source: Epidemics - February 3, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Assessing reporting delays and the effective reproduction number: The 2018-19 Ebola epidemic in DRC, May 2018-January 2019
Publication date: Available online 3 February 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): A. Tariq, K. Roosa, K. Mizumoto, G. ChowellAbstractOn August 1, 2018, the Democratic Republic of Congo declared its 10th and largest outbreak of Ebola inflicting North Khivu and Ituri provinces. The spread of Ebola to Congolese urban centers along with deliberate attacks on the health care workers has hindered epidemiological surveillance activities, leading to substantial reporting delays. Reporting delays distort the epidemic incidence pattern and misrepresenting estimates of epidemic potential and the outbreak trajectory. To assess the impact ...
Source: Epidemics - February 3, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
