Modeling the role of carrier and mobile herds on foot-and-mouth disease virus endemicity in the Far North Region of Cameroon
We present a spatial stochastic model of disease dynamics that incorporates a spatial transmission kernel in a modified Gillespie algorithm, and use it to evaluate two hypothesized drivers of endemicity: asymptomatic carriers and the movement of mobile herds. The model is parameterized using data from the pastoral systems in the Far North Region of Cameroon. Our computational study provides evidence in support of the hypothesis that asymptomatic carriers, but not mobile herds, are a driver of endemicity.Graphical abstract (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - July 13, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Detecting within-host interactions from genotype combination prevalence data
Publication date: Available online 18 June 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Samuel Alizon, Carmen Lía Murall, Emma Saulnier, Mircea SofoneaAbstractParasite genetic diversity can provide information on disease transmission dynamics but most mathematical and statistical frameworks ignore the exact combinations of genotypes in infections. We introduce and validate a new method that combines explicit epidemiological modelling of coinfections and regression-Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC) to detect within-host interactions. Using a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model, we show that, if sufficiently strong, within-h...
Source: Epidemics - June 18, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Household transmission and disease transmissibility of a large HAV outbreak in Lazio, Italy, 2016–2017
Publication date: Available online 13 June 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Giorgio GuzzettaAbstractA major outbreak of Hepatitis A Virus (HAV) has swept through Europe between mid-2016 and 2017, mainly within the community of men who have sex with men (MSM). Over the same period, about 1,000 outbreak-related cases of acute Hepatitis A (AHA) were recorded in Lazio region, Italy.We calibrated a Bayesian model to reconstruct likely transmission events within all 44 households where multiple infections were recorded, representing a total of 103 cases from the HAV outbreak in Lazio. Based on information on the observed times of...
Source: Epidemics - June 15, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
School dismissal as a pandemic influenza response: When, where and for how long?
Publication date: Available online 12 June 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Timothy C. Germann, Hongjiang Gao, Manoj Gambhir, Andrew Plummer, Matthew Biggerstaff, Carrie Reed, Amra UzicaninAbstractWe used individual-based computer simulation models at community, regional and national levels to evaluate the likely impact of coordinated pre-emptive school dismissal policies during an influenza pandemic. Such policies involve three key decisions: when, over what geographical scale, and how long to keep schools closed. Our evaluation includes uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, as well as model output uncertainties arising fr...
Source: Epidemics - June 13, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Complementing the power of deep learning with statistical model fusion: Probabilistic forecasting of influenza in Dallas County, Texas, USA
Publication date: Available online 8 June 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Marwah Soliman, Vyacheslav Lyubchich, Yulia R. GelAbstractInfluenza is one of the main causes of death, not only in the USA but worldwide. Its significant economic and public health impacts necessitate development of accurate and efficient algorithms for forecasting of any upcoming influenza outbreaks. Most currently available methods for influenza prediction are based on parametric time series and regression models that impose restrictive and often unverifiable assumptions on the data. In turn, more flexible machine learning models and, particularly...
Source: Epidemics - June 8, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
A systematic review of MERS-CoV seroprevalence and RNA prevalence in dromedary camels: implications for animal vaccination
Publication date: Available online 5 June 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Amy Dighe, Thibaut Jombart, Maria D. Van Kerkhove, Neil FergusonAbstractHuman infection with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is driven by recurring dromedary-to-human spill-over events, leading decision-makers to consider dromedary vaccination. Dromedary vaccine candidates in the development pipeline are showing hopeful results, but gaps in our understanding of the epidemiology of MERS-CoV in dromedaries must be addressed to design and evaluate potential vaccination strategies. We aim to bring together existing measures of MER...
Source: Epidemics - June 6, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Temperature impacts on dengue emergence in the United States: Investigating the role of seasonality and climate change
In this study, we use a deterministic ordinary differential equations model to investigate how seasonal and diurnal temperature fluctuations affect the potential for dengue transmission in six U.S. cities. We specifically consider temperature-dependent mosquito larval development, adult mosquito mortality, and the extrinsic incubation period of the virus. We show that the ability of introductions to lead to outbreaks depends upon the relationship between a city's temperature profile and the time of year at which the initial case is introduced. We also investigate how the potential for outbreaks changes with predicted futur...
Source: Epidemics - June 6, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Variation and Trends in Transmission Dynamics of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus Aureus in Veterans Affairs Hospitals and Nursing Homes
Publication date: Available online 29 May 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Karim Khader, Alun Thomas, Makoto Jones, Damon Toth, Vanessa Stevens, Matthew H. Samore, CDC Modeling Infectious Diseases in Healthcare Program (MInD-Healthcare)AbstractVariation and differences of MRSA transmission within and between healthcare settings are not well understood. This variability is critical for understanding the potential impact of infection control interventions and could aid in the evaluation of future intervention strategies. We fit a Bayesian transmission model to detailed individual-level MRSA surveillance data from over 230 Vet...
Source: Epidemics - May 30, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Phylogeography of rubella virus in Asia: vaccination and demography shape synchronous outbreaks
Publication date: Available online 28 May 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Brooke A. Bozick, Colin J. Worby, C. Jessica E. MetcalfAbstractRubella virus causes mild disease in children but for women in the early stages of pregnancy, it can cause spontaneous abortion, congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) and associated birth defects. Despite the availability of an effective vaccine, rubella virus continues to circulate endemically in several regions of the world. This is particularly true in East and Southeast (E/SE) Asia, where control efforts vary widely among countries that are well connected through travel and immigration. I...
Source: Epidemics - May 29, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
The Contact Structure of Great Britain’s Salmon and Trout Aquaculture Industry
Publication date: Available online 7 May 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): A.E. Jones, L.A. Munro, D.M. Green, K.L. Morgan, A.G. Murray, R. Norman, D. Ryder, N.K.G. Salama, N.G.H. Taylor, M.A. Thrush, I.S. Wallace, K.J. SharkeyAbstractWe analyse the network structure of the British salmonid aquaculture industry from the perspective of infectious disease control. We combine for the first time live fish transport (or movement) data covering England and Wales with data covering Scotland and include network layers representing potential transmission by rivers, sea water and local transmission via human or animal vectors in the i...
Source: Epidemics - May 8, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Analyzing and forecasting the Ebola incidence in North Kivu, the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 2018-19 in real time
Publication date: Available online 3 May 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov, Hyojung Lee, Sung-mok Jung, Taishi Kayano, Baoyin Yuan, Hiroshi NishiuraAbstractDuring an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak, the analysis and forecasting of the incidence in real time is challenged by reporting of cases, especially the reporting delay. It should be remembered that the latest count of cases is likely underestimated in real time, and moreover, the effective reproduction number, i.e. the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case at a given point in time, is also underestimated without p...
Source: Epidemics - May 5, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Network analyses of transhumance movements and simulations of foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission among mobile livestock in Cameroon
Publication date: Available online 25 April 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Laura W. Pomeroy, Mark Moritz, Rebecca GarabedAbstractFoot-and-mouth disease (FMD) affects cloven-hoofed livestock and agricultural economies worldwide. Analyses of the 2001 FMD outbreak in the United Kingdom informed how livestock movement contributed to disease spread. However, livestock reared in other locations use different production systems that might also influence disease dynamics. Here, we investigate a livestock production system known as transhumance, which is the practice of moving livestock between seasonal grazing areas. We built mec...
Source: Epidemics - April 26, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Real-time prediction of influenza outbreaks in Belgium
Publication date: Available online 18 April 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Gisele H.B. Miranda, Jan M. Baetens, Nathalie Bossuyt, Odemir M. Bruno, Bernard De BaetsAbstractSeasonal influenza is a worldwide public health concern. Forecasting its dynamics can improve the management of public health regulations, resources and infrastructure, and eventually reduce mortality and the costs induced by influenza-related absenteism. In Belgium, a network of Sentinel General Practitioners (SGPs) is in place for the early detection of the seasonal influenza epidemic. This surveillance network reports the weekly incidence of influenza...
Source: Epidemics - April 19, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Acknowledgement to reviewers of Epidemics - The Journal on Infectious Disease Dynamics
Publication date: March 2019Source: Epidemics, Volume 26Author(s): (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - April 3, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 in south-west France 2016–2017: A modeling study of control strategies
This study showcases the possible contribution of modeling to inform and optimize control strategies during an outbreak. (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - April 3, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
