Bayesian epidemiological modeling over high-resolution network data
Publication date: Available online 2 July 2020Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Stefan Engblom, Robin Eriksson, Stefan Widgren (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - July 4, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
How mechanistic modelling supports decision making for the control of enzootic infectious diseases
Publication date: Available online 20 June 2020Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): P. Ezanno, M. Andraud, G. Beaunée, T. Hoch, S. Krebs, A. Rault, S. Touzeau, E. Vergu, S. Widgren (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - June 22, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
The effects of border control and quarantine measures on the spread of COVID-19
Publication date: Available online 6 June 2020Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): M. Pear Hossain, Alvin Junus, Xiaolin Zhu, Pengfei Jia, Tzai-Hung Wen, Dirk Pfeiffer, Hsiang-Yu Yuan (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - June 6, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Influencing public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infectious diseases: Recent developments and new challenges
Publication date: Available online 17 May 2020Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Amani Alahmadi, Sarah Belet, Andrew Black, Deborah Cromer, Jennifer A. Flegg, Thomas House, Pavithra Jayasundara, Jonathan M. Keith, James M. McCaw, Rob Moss, Joshua V. Ross, Freya M. Shearer, Sai Thein Than Tun, James Walker, Lisa White, Jason M. Whyte, W.C. Ada, Alexander E. Zarebski (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - May 18, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Tooling-up for infectious disease transmission modelling
Publication date: Available online 13 May 2020Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Marc Baguelin, Graham F. Medley, Emily S. Nightingale, Kathleen M. O’Reilly, Eleanor M. Rees, Naomi R. Waterlow, Moritz Wagner (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - May 15, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
The time scale of asymptomatic transmission affects estimates of epidemic potential in the COVID-19 outbreak
Publication date: Available online 11 May 2020Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Sang Woo Park, Daniel M. Cornforth, Jonathan Dushoff, Joshua S. Weitz (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - May 12, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Estimating sea lice infestation pressure on salmon farms: Comparing different methods using multivariate state-space models
Publication date: Available online 11 May 2020Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Adel Elghafghuf, Raphael Vanderstichel, Larry Hammell, Henrik Stryhn (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - May 11, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Designing a typhoid environmental surveillance study: a simulation model for optimum sampling site allocation
Publication date: Available online 17 April 2020Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Yuke Wang, Christine L. Moe, Shanta Dutta, Ashutosh Wadhwa, Suman Kanungo, Wolfgang Mairinger, Yichuan Zhao, Yi Jiang, Peter FM. Teunis (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - April 17, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Dynamics of Livestock-Associated Methicillin Resistant Staphylococcus aureus in pig movement networks: insight from mathematical modeling and French data
Publication date: Available online 9 February 2020Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Jonathan Bastard, Mathieu Andraud, Claire Chauvin, Philippe Glaser, Lulla Opatowski, Laura TemimeAbstractLivestock-associated methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA) colonizes livestock animals worldwide, especially pigs and calves. Although frequently carried asymptomatically, LA-MRSA can cause severe infections in humans. It is therefore important to better understand LA-MRSA spreading dynamics within pig farms and over pig movement networks, and to compare different strategies of control and surveillance. For this purpose, we pro...
Source: Epidemics - February 10, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Emergence of pertactin-deficient pertussis strains in Australia can be explained by models of vaccine escape
In this study, we considered a deterministic 2-strain compartmental model to characterize the relative fitness of PRN– strains and vaccine efficacy against PRN– infection in comparison to the wild-type pertactin-expressing (PRN+) strains. We first showed that the model’s equilibrium behavior allows for replacement and co-existence, depending on key parameters related to transmission, vaccine efficacy and durations of immunity. We then fitted the model to epidemiological and pathogen PRN data from the state of New South Wales, Australia.Fitted model parameters showed that the changes in pertussis epidemiology have bee...
Source: Epidemics - February 10, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Spatial and Temporal Clustering of Patients Hospitalized with Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza in the United States
ConclusionsSocioeconomic factors strongly impact local influenza hospitalization burden. Influenza phase synchrony varies by year and by socioeconomics, but is less influenced by socioeconomics than is disease burden. (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - February 10, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Egocentric Sexual Networks of Men Who Have Sex with Men in the United States: Results from the ARTnet Study
Publication date: Available online 24 January 2020Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Kevin M. Weiss, Steven M. Goodreau, Martina Morris, Pragati Prasad, Ramya Ramaraju, Travis Sanchez, Samuel M. JennessABSTRACTIn this paper, we present an overview and descriptive results from the first egocentric network study of men who have sex with men (MSM) from across the United States: the ARTnet study. ARTnet was designed to support prevention research for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) that are transmitted across partnership networks. ARTnet implemented a population-based egocentric net...
Source: Epidemics - January 25, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Quantifying the success of measles vaccination campaigns in the Rohingya refugee camps
Publication date: Available online 9 January 2020Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Taylor Chin, Caroline O. Buckee, Ayesha S. MahmudAbstractIn the wake of the Rohingya population's mass migration from Myanmar, one of the world's largest refugee settlements was constructed in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh to accommodate nearly 900,000 new refugees. Refugee populations are particularly vulnerable to infectious disease outbreaks due to many population and environmental factors. A large measles outbreak, with over 1,700 cases, occurred among the Rohingya population between September and November 2017. Here, we estimate key epidemiological...
Source: Epidemics - January 9, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Small world in the real world: long distance dispersal governs epidemic dynamics in agricultural landscapes
Publication date: Available online 7 January 2020Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Giovanni Strona, Claudio Castellano, Simone Fattorini, Luigi Ponti, Andrew Paul Gutierrez, Pieter S.A. BeckAbstractOutbreaks of a plant disease in a landscape can be meaningfully modelled using networks with nodes representing individual crop-fields, and edges representing potential infection pathways between them. Their spatial structure, which resembles that of a regular lattice, makes such networks fairly robust against epidemics. Yet, it is well-known how the addition of a few shortcuts can turn robust regular lattices into vulnerable ‘small...
Source: Epidemics - January 8, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Choices and trade-offs in inference with infectious disease models
Publication date: Available online 20 December 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Sebastian Funk, Aaron A. KingAbstractInference using mathematical models of infectious disease dynamics can be an invaluable tool for the interpretation and analysis of epidemiological data. However, researchers wishing to use this tool are faced with a choice of models and model types, simulation methods, inference methods and software packages. Given the multitude of options, it can be challenging to decide on the best approach. Here, we delineate the choices and trade-offs involved in deciding on an approach for inference, and discuss aspects...
Source: Epidemics - December 21, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
