Russian Public Opinion on the Ukraine War: Perspectives from the American Experience

John MuellerSince World War II, the United States has conducted extended wars in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Whether the Russian effort in Ukraine will be similarly extended has yet to be seen. However, should that come about, evidence about public opinion from America ’s wars suggests lessons—and non-lessons—for assessing Russian opinion on the war in Ukraine.The comparison suggests that, after a rally-round-the flag effect at the outset of the war, a decline of support is to be expected regardless of the effects of media coverage, antiwar demonstrations, censorship and propaganda efforts, or military happenings in the war. This will also result in an increasing willingness to accept failure or even debacle in the war and in a strong inclination not to attempt other such ventures. However, there is an important difference in the experiences, one that is potentially consequential: while the average American remained substantially untouched personally by the wars, that may well not hold for the average Russian.Initial SupportEven discounting for the restrictions in civil liberties, initial Russian popular support for the war appears to have been quite high —probably around 70 or 75 percent. The same number roughlyholds for the American wars except for the one in Afghanistan, conducted shortly after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, where support at the outset was closer to 90 percent.People tend to believe what they want to believe. In all cases, the strong initia...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - Category: American Health Authors: Source Type: blogs